The United States will not renew the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement in its current form, a decision that leaves the 16 year old trade pact without a clear path forward and puts roughly 2 trillion dollars in annual regional trade under a cloud of uncertainty.
At a Glance
- USMCA's review deadline passed on July 1, 2036 without a renewal agreement
- U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the pact stays active while disputes get worked out
- Trump replaced NAFTA with USMCA in 2018, then later imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico anyway
- Canada and Mexico together account for about a third of all U.S. exports
- The agreement does not disappear immediately; it can still expire on its own in 2036 if nothing changes
What Greer Actually Said
In a statement issued Wednesday, the deadline for renewing the agreement, Greer made clear that Washington was not walking away entirely. "The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form," he said, adding that the deal would remain in force while the three countries try to resolve their disagreements, or until it is formally terminated. He said the U.S. plans to keep talking with Mexico and Canada about what he called the agreement's shortcomings, along with the trade deficits the U.S. runs with both neighbors.
From NAFTA Replacement to Trump's Target
Trump signed USMCA during his first term in 2018, presenting it as an upgrade over NAFTA that would rebalance trade and boost job growth across North America. It took full effect on July 1, 2020. Since then, American exporters have shipped trillions of dollars in goods and services under its terms.
None of that history stopped Trump from turning on the agreement once he returned to the White House in 2025. He rolled out a wave of tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, undercutting the very framework he once championed. On June 10, he argued the U.S. holds the stronger hand in these relationships. "We don't need anything that Canada has. We don't need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have," he told reporters, adding that both countries "have to treat us better."
Why This Matters for Trade Flows
Canada and Mexico rank among the top trading partners of the United States, together making up close to a third of total U.S. exports, according to Census Bureau foreign trade figures. The agreement has underpinned close to 2 trillion dollars in trade annually, based on figures reported by The Wall Street Journal. Losing the renewal doesn't shut that trade down overnight, but it strips away the certainty businesses on both sides of the borders have relied on for planning, sourcing and pricing.
An Unresolved Fight With No Quick End
Because the agreement stays technically alive while negotiations continue, there's no single moment when things fall apart. Instead, economists expect a drawn out period of friction, with the eventual outcome hard to predict. Some analysts warn that regional economies, particularly manufacturing and agriculture sectors tied closely to cross border supply chains, could feel the strain of that uncertainty long before any new deal, or the 2036 expiration, settles the matter for good.
What Comes Next
For now, USMCA limps along in a kind of legal limbo: not renewed, not terminated, just pending. Whether Greer's continued talks with Mexico and Canada produce a revised framework, or whether Trump's tariff approach hardens into a permanent rupture, will shape how North American trade functions for years. Businesses that built supply chains around the old deal are left watching Washington for the next move.