The United States will not renew the US Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) in one sweeping move. Instead, Washington has opted for a system of annual reviews that could keep the pact alive for up to ten years, unless one of the three countries decides to walk away sooner.
At a Glance
- The USMCA can remain active for up to ten years through yearly reviews rather than a single renewal.
- If no deal is reached by then, the agreement expires in 2036.
- The announcement came on July 1, 2026, the sixth anniversary of the pact taking effect.
- Trade among the three countries topped $1.6 trillion in 2024, up from $1 trillion in 2020.
- US and Mexican officials plan a third round of talks the week of July 20.
Why Washington Chose Reviews Over a Full Renewal
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Bloomberg the administration sees "substantial issues" with the current terms and is "not prepared to rubber stamp the agreement." Officials point to persistent trade deficits with Mexico and Canada and to language in the pact that limits tariffs President Trump has wanted to apply. That is notable given Trump signed the original USMCA into law back in 2020, making this a reversal of sorts from his own administration's earlier position.
What the Numbers Show
The scale of trade at stake is hard to overstate. The US, Canada and Mexico together generate close to a third of global GDP, and trade flows between them have grown by 60 percent since the agreement began. About 90 percent of imports from Canada and Mexico now qualify as USMCA compliant, and that compliance rate climbed further last year as new tariffs gave companies more reason to file the paperwork needed to claim preferential treatment.
Quick Facts
- USMCA took effect on July 1, 2020.
- The countries had the option to extend the pact by 16 years on its sixth anniversary.
- Annual reviews will now determine whether it continues past that window.
- The pact automatically ends in 2036 absent a new agreement.
Where the Negotiations Stand
US and Mexican negotiators are set to meet again the week of July 20 for a third round of talks. According to a senior administration official, discussions will address rules of origin for industrial goods outside the auto sector, along with aerospace, intellectual property and water quality. Formal talks with Mexico have moved ahead in recent months, while Canada has largely stayed outside that process.
Canada's Position in the Talks
Dominic LeBlanc, the Canadian minister overseeing US trade matters, said officials from both countries "agreed on the importance of continuing our discussions and identifying ways to ensure trade and investment frameworks between Canada, the US and Mexico continue to support North American prosperity and competitiveness." He added that Canada wants substantive talks on sectoral tariffs affecting steel, aluminum, autos and lumber. Relations between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have been tense throughout this process, with Carney working to reduce Canada's economic dependence on the US.
What Happens Next for North American Trade
Separate US tariffs on autos and metals remain unresolved and are likely to surface again in upcoming rounds of talks. With Mexico further along in negotiations than Canada, the coming months will show whether Ottawa can catch up to secure relief on sectoral tariffs before the review process starts shaping the pact's longer term fate.