San Francisco housing prices are climbing faster than anywhere else in the country right now, driven by a wave of paper wealth tied to blockbuster tech IPOs, and that combination is pushing even six-figure earners out of the rental market entirely.
At a Glance
- Median San Francisco home prices rose nearly 15% year over year for March to May 2026, the fastest pace nationally, according to Redfin data.
- Home sales above $5 million jumped 69% in the first quarter of 2026 versus the same period in 2025.
- Anthropic confidentially filed IPO paperwork on June 1 and could go public before OpenAI as soon as this fall.
- OpenAI and Anthropic are each reportedly approaching valuations near $1 trillion.
- An analysis cited by the New York Times suggests more than 20 current and former employees of OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX could become new billionaires.
A Couple's Search That Went Nowhere
Katrine Razniak, 27, moved to the Bay Area in 2022 making $70,000 as a LinkedIn recruiter. Her pay jumped to $180,000 after she joined Rippling in late 2023. Her partner, Adam Woodbury, 39, a software engineer who relocated in 2021, earns $185,000. Their combined income lands them among the top tier of American earners, yet this spring they still could not land an apartment.
The pair toured 30 one bedroom listings over three months, hoping to stay under $5,000 a month. At one listing priced near $5,200, 30 people applied within an hour of the open house. They eventually stopped looking. Razniak told the New York Times she does not feel completely hopeless but doubts she can remain in the city.
Why Two Companies Not Yet Public Are Already Moving Prices
OpenAI and Anthropic haven't sold a single share to the public, yet their presence is already reshaping the local housing market. Anthropic filed confidential IPO paperwork on June 1, and reporting from Fortune suggests it could beat OpenAI to Wall Street as early as this fall. Add in Elon Musk's SpaceX, and the pool of people holding pre IPO equity in San Francisco is enormous.
That equity currently exists mostly on paper. But local investors and lenders are already treating it as real, and buyers with big equity stakes are behaving as though a payday is coming. That anticipation alone is enough to bid up scarce inventory at the top of the market.
Quick Facts
- San Francisco median home prices: up nearly 15% year over year, March to May 2026.
- Sales above $5 million: up 69% in Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025, per Jay Cheng of the San Francisco Association of Realtors.
- Rental target for the featured couple: under $5,000 a month for a one bedroom.
- Combined household income of the couple profiled: $365,000.
How This Differs From the National Picture
Nationally, home price growth has been far more restrained, with most metro areas seeing modest annual gains rather than double digit jumps. San Francisco's near 15% increase stands out precisely because it is an outlier tied to a specific, local catalyst: concentrated tech wealth rather than broad based demand. Mortgage rates and general inventory constraints affect buyers everywhere, but in San Francisco those pressures are compounding with IPO anticipation in a way most other cities are not experiencing.
What Buyers, Sellers and Investors Are Watching
For sellers holding property in San Francisco's upper price tiers, the current environment favors quick, competitive sales, particularly above the $5 million mark where bidding has intensified. Buyers without pre IPO equity, including well paid professionals like Razniak and Woodbury, are finding themselves priced out of even modest one bedroom rentals as competition for limited inventory intensifies. Investors are watching the IPO calendar closely, since actual liquidity events, not just paper wealth, tend to trigger the next round of purchases once shares convert to cash. Whether Anthropic's expected offering this fall accelerates that shift further will likely become clearer as filings progress and pricing details emerge.